TECHNICAL OUTLOOK, 9 JANUARY

D Sathia Moorthy


Nifty (spot) 2920.40



Nifty Intraday trading levels

Today, if Nifty trades below 2950, then it could test 2850 and below this level, it could test 2750. Instead, if it trades above 2950, then it could test 3030.


Nifty Trading Strategy for intraday and positional trading

For intraday, the crucial level is 2950. Trade short below this level and trade long above this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 3050 for a target of 2500 with a stop at 3100 and trade long above 3050 for a target of 3150 with a stop at 3000.



Short term Technical View of Nifty


The short term trend is looking weak and it is likely to test 2500 initially and then it could decline towards 2000 and this view holds good as long as Nifty stays below 3250.

The recent rally from the low of 2250 seems to be corrective and it seems it has peaked out at 3250.

The present rally from 2500 seems to be a counter trend rally and it is likely to peak out below the previous top of 3250.





Medium term outlook of Nifty dated on 14 October 2008

The medium term outlook of Nifty would remain bearish if it fails to sustain above 3100. Nifty is likely to bottom out in the medium term at 2000-2200 levels in coming months and if it fails to sustain above this level, then it is likely to decline below 2000 levels.





Long term outlook of Nifty dated on 13 October 2008

The long term outlook of Nifty is looking bearish and it seems that Nifty is likely to bottom out in 6 months to 1 year if the bottom forms around 2000. If the level 2000 is not held, then Nifty is likely to take more than 1 year to bottom out.





Short term trading calls of Stocks for spot market



Reliance (spot)

The level 1300 is crucial for short term. If it sustains above 1300, then it is likely to rally towards 1370.

Instead, if it fails to sustain above 1300 in coming trading sessions, then it is likely to turn weak and it could decline towards 1000 initially.

Trading Strategy for Reliance

For intraday, the crucial level is 1210. Trade long above these levels and trade short below these levels.

Positional traders can initiate longs if it moves above 1300 for a target of 1370. Initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 1300 for a target of 1000 initially.



SBI (spot)

The crucial level for the short term for this scrip is 1350. If it fails to sustain above 1350, then it is likely to turn bearish and in the down side it could test 1000 in coming trading sessions.

Instead, if it sustains above 1350, then the short term trend would turn bullish and in the upper side it is likely to move towards 1400.


Trading Strategy for SBI

For Intraday, the crucial level is 1250. Trade long above this level and trade short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 1350 for a target of 1000. And initiate longs if it sustains above 1350 for a target of 1400.



Infosys (spot)

The level 1200 is crucial in the short term. If the scrip trades above this level, the short term would turn bullish and in the upper side it could test 1250.

If it fails to sustain above 1200, then the trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 1000 initially.


Trading Strategy for Infosys


For intraday, the crucial level is 1200. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 1200 for a target of 1000. Initiate longs if it sustains above 1200 for a target of 1250.





Reliance Capital (spot)

The level 580 is crucial for this scrip in the short term. If it sustains above this level, then it is likely to see a rally from these levels towards 630.

Instead, if it fails to sustain above 580, the short term trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 450 initially.



Trading Strategy for Reliance capital

For intraday, the crucial level is 530. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if the scrip fails to sustain above 580 for a target of 450. Initiate longs if it sustains above 580 for a target of 630.




Maruti (spot)

The crucial level for the scrip in the short term is 580. The trend would remain bearish for this scrip if it sustains below 580 and in the down side, it could test 480 initially.

If the scrip sustains above 580, then the scrip is likely to turn bullish in the short term and in the upper side it could rally towards 620.


Trading Strategy for Maruti

For intraday, the crucial level is 580. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate longs if the level 580 is broken in the upside for a target of 620. Short if it fails to sustain above 580 for a target of 480.


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