TECHNICAL OUTLOOK, 12 JANUARY

D Sathia Moorthy


Nifty (spot) 2873.40



Nifty Intraday trading levels

Today, if Nifty trades below 2920, then it could test 2800 and below this level, it could test 2750. Instead, if it trades above 2920, then it could test 2950.


Nifty Trading Strategy for intraday and positional trading

For intraday, the crucial level is 2860. Trade short below this level and trade long above this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 2950 for a target of 2500 with a stop at 3000 and trade long above 2950 for a target of 3050 with a stop at 2900.



Short term Technical View of Nifty


The short term trend is looking weak and it is likely to test 2500 initially and then it could decline towards 2000 and this view holds good as long as Nifty stays below 3250.

The recent rally from the low of 2250 seems to be corrective and it seems it has peaked out at 3250.

The present rally from 2500 seems to be a counter trend rally and it is likely to peak out below the previous top of 3250.





Medium term outlook of Nifty dated on 14 October 2008

The medium term outlook of Nifty would remain bearish if it fails to sustain above 3100. Nifty is likely to bottom out in the medium term at 2000-2200 levels in coming months and if it fails to sustain above this level, then it is likely to decline below 2000 levels.





Long term outlook of Nifty dated on 13 October 2008

The long term outlook of Nifty is looking bearish and it seems that Nifty is likely to bottom out in 6 months to 1 year if the bottom forms around 2000. If the level 2000 is not held, then Nifty is likely to take more than 1 year to bottom out.





Short term trading calls of Stocks for spot market



Reliance (spot)

The level 1250 is crucial for short term. If it sustains above 1250, then it is likely to rally towards 1320.

Instead, if it fails to sustain above 1250 in coming trading sessions, then it is likely to turn weak and it could decline towards 1000 initially.

Trading Strategy for Reliance

For intraday, the crucial level is 1120. Trade long above these levels and trade short below these levels.

Positional traders can initiate longs if it moves above 1250 for a target of 1320. Initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 1250 for a target of 1000 initially.



SBI (spot)

The crucial level for the short term for this scrip is 1300. If it fails to sustain above 1300, then it is likely to turn bearish and in the down side it could test 1000 in coming trading sessions.

Instead, if it sustains above 1300, then the short term trend would turn bullish and in the upper side it is likely to move towards 1350.


Trading Strategy for SBI

For Intraday, the crucial level is 1200. Trade long above this level and trade short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 1300 for a target of 1000. And initiate longs if it sustains above 1300 for a target of 1350.



Infosys (spot)

The level 1200 is crucial in the short term. If the scrip trades above this level, the short term would turn bullish and in the upper side it could test 1250.

If it fails to sustain above 1200, then the trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 1000 initially.


Trading Strategy for Infosys


For intraday, the crucial level is 1150. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 1200 for a target of 1000. Initiate longs if it sustains above 1200 for a target of 1250.





MTNL (spot)

The level 80 is crucial for this scrip in the short term. If it sustains above this level, then it is likely to see a rally from these levels towards 95.

Instead, if it fails to sustain above 80, the short term trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 55 initially.



Trading Strategy for MTNL

For intraday, the crucial level is 74. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if the scrip fails to sustain above 80 for a target of 55. Initiate longs if it sustains above 80 for a target of 95.




Sail (spot)

The crucial level for the scrip in the short term is 90. The trend would remain bearish for this scrip if it sustains below 90 and in the down side, it could test 55 initially.

If the scrip sustains above 90, then the scrip is likely to turn bullish in the short term and in the upper side it could rally towards 105.


Trading Strategy for Sail

For intraday, the crucial level is 82. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate longs if the level 90 is broken in the upside for a target of 105. Short if it fails to sustain above 90 for a target of 55.


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