TECHNICAL OUTLOOK, 5 JANAURY

D Sathia Moorthy


Nifty (spot) 3051.55



Nifty Intraday trading levels

Today, if Nifty trades below 3050, then it could test 2990 and below this level, it could test 2900. Instead, if it trades above 3050, then it could test 3150.


Nifty Trading Strategy for intraday and positional trading

For intraday, the crucial level is 3050. Trade short below this level and trade long above this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 3050 for a target of 2500 with a stop at 3100 and trade long above 3050 for a target of 3150 with a stop at 3000.



Short term Technical View of Nifty


The short term trend is looking weak and it is likely to test 2500 and this view holds good as long as Nifty stays below 3050. If Nifty sustains above 3050, then it could test 3150 which will be followed by a decline towards 2500.

The recent rally from the low of 2250 seems to be corrective and it seems it has peaked out at 3250.

The present rally from 2500 seems to be a counter trend rally and it is likely to peak out below the previous top of 3250.





Medium term outlook of Nifty dated on 14 October 2008

The medium term outlook of Nifty would remain bearish if it fails to sustain above 3100. Nifty is likely to bottom out in the medium term at 2000-2200 levels in coming months and if it fails to sustain above this level, then it is likely to decline below 2000 levels.





Long term outlook of Nifty dated on 13 October 2008

The long term outlook of Nifty is looking bearish and it seems that Nifty is likely to bottom out in 6 months to 1 year if the bottom forms around 2000. If the level 2000 is not held, then Nifty is likely to take more than 1 year to bottom out.





Short term trading calls of Stocks for spot market



Reliance (spot)

The level 1300 is crucial for short term. If it sustains above 1300, then it is likely to rally towards 1375.

Instead, if it fails to sustain above 1300 in coming trading sessions, then it is likely to turn weak and it could decline towards 1000 initially.

Trading Strategy for Reliance

For intraday, the crucial level is 1300. Trade long above these levels and trade short below these levels.

Positional traders can initiate longs if it moves above 1300 for a target of 1375. Initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 1300 for a target of 1000 initially.



SBI (spot)

The crucial level for the short term for this scrip is 1350. If it fails to sustain above 1350, then it is likely to turn bearish and in the down side it could test 1000 in coming trading session.

Instead, if it sustains above 1350, then the short term trend would turn bullish and in the upper side it is likely to move towards 1400.


Trading Strategy for SBI

For Intraday, the crucial level is 1350. Trade long above this level and trade short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 1350 for a target of 1000. And initiate longs if it sustains above 1350 for a target of 1400.



DLF (spot)

The level 300 is crucial in the short term. If the scrip trades above this level, the short term would turn bullish and in the upper side it could test 340.

If it fails to sustain above 300, then the trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 200 initially.


Trading Strategy for DLF


For intraday, the crucial level is 295. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 300 for a target of 200. Initiate longs if it sustains above 300 for a target of 340.





Suzlon (spot)

The level 70 is crucial for this scrip in the short term. If it sustains above this level, then it is likely to see a rally from these levels towards 85.

Instead, if it fails to sustain above 70, the short term trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 45 initially.



Trading Strategy for Suzlon

For intraday, the crucial level is 68. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if the scrip fails to sustain above 70 for a target of 45. Initiate longs if it sustains above 70 for a target of 85.




Unitech (spot)

The crucial level for the scrip in the short term is 50. The trend would remain bearish for this scrip if it sustains below 50 and in the down side, it could test 30 initially.

If the scrip sustains above 50, then the scrip is likely to turn bullish in the short term and in the upper side it could rally towards 65.


Trading Strategy for Unitech

For intraday, the crucial level is 46. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate longs if the level 50 is broken in the upside for a target of 65. Short if it fails to sustain above 50 for a target of 30.


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