Friday, August 11, 2006

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK - 11, AUGUST

Nifty 3260.10

The short term trend in Nifty is looking bullish and this view holds good as long as Nifty stays above 3140 level. And as long as Nifty stays above this level, it has potential of testing higher targets above 3300.

Today, if Nifty fails to move above 3265 and moves below 3240, then it has potential of tesing 3220-3225 region from where it is likely to bounce.

Instead, if Nifty manages to stay above 3240, then it would test 3265. If Nifty moves above 3265 level and sustains above that level, then it has potential of testing 3300.

The stop for the longs is 3225.


Medium term Outlook of Nifty

For the past few weeks, I have been mentioning that the maximum possible downside potential is limited to 2500 level for Nifty. If market doesn’t violate this level here after, the long term bullish trend will remain intact. Correction extending beyond this level is highly suspectable and we have to rework the long term charts. Now, one can remain invested for the long term with a stop at 2850.

The post correction scenario has two possibilities. One possibility is, Nifty is likely to move towards its all time high in a slow manner and if this is the case, then it may take 6 months to 1 year to cross the all time high. The other view is, Nifty is likely to move towards its previous high without any major downside correction and in this case, Nifty is likely to cross the all time high before the month of August 2006. If Market moves in expected lines, then once again we are likely to see a strong bull market in coming months.