Monday, August 07, 2006

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK - 07, AUGUST

Nifty 3176.75

The short term trend in Nifty is looking bullish and this view holds good as long as Nifty stays above 3050 level. And as long as Nifty stays above this level, it has potential of testing higher targets above 3250 level.

Today, if the level 3150 is not violated and if Nifty moves above 3210 and sustains above that level, then it could test 3240-3250 region. Stop for the longs is 3150.

On the other hand, if it breaks 3150, then correction could extend further in the downside.


Reliance 967.80

The scrip is likely to bottom out around this level, if the level 960 is not violated. If it moves below 960, then it could bottom out around 930 levels. Once this scrip bottoms out, on the upper side, in coming trading sessions, Reliance has potential of testing 1050 levels.

TCS 948.55

If the level 930 is not violated in the downside, this scrip has potential of testing 1000 in coming trading sessions.


Medium term Outlook of Nifty

For the past few weeks, I have been mentioning that the maximum possible downside potential is limited to 2500 level for Nifty. If market doesn’t violate this level here after, the long term bullish trend will remain intact. Correction extending beyond this level is highly suspectable and we have to rework the long term charts. Now, one can remain invested for the long term with a stop at 2850.

The post correction scenario has two possibilities. One possibility is, Nifty is likely to move towards its all time high in a slow manner and if this is the case, then it may take 6 months to 1 year to cross the all time high. The other view is, Nifty is likely to move towards its previous high without any major downside correction and in this case, Nifty is likely to cross the all time high before the month of August 2006. If Market moves in expected lines, then once again we are likely to see a strong bull market in coming months.