Wednesday, September 30, 2009

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK, 30 SEPTEMBER










Nifty (spot) 5006.55



Nifty Intraday trading levels and range


Today, if Nifty sustains below 4980, then it could test 4920 and below that level, it could test 4840.

Instead, if Nifty trades above 4980, then it could test 5020.



The recent trendline drawn from the break out low is already broken, thus negating a running triangle pattern from the break out low, which, indicates short term weakness in the market.







Nifty intraday Trading Strategy

For intraday, the crucial level is 4980. Trade short below this level and trade long above this level.


Nifty Positional Trading Strategy


Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 4720 for a target of 3900 with a stop at 4720 and trade long above 4720 for a target of 5000 with a stop at 4720.



Short term Technical View of Nifty


Nifty is likely to test 3900 initially in the downside, if it fails to move above 4720 in coming trading sessions. And if it trades above 4720, then it could test 5000 levels.




Medium term outlook of Nifty dated on 20 May 2009

The medium term outlook of Nifty would remain bearish if it fails to sustain above 5000. Nifty is likely to bottom out in the medium term at 2000-2200 levels in coming months and if it fails to sustain above this level, then it is likely to decline below 2000 levels.





Long term outlook of Nifty dated on 30 June 2009

The long term outlook of Nifty is looking bearish and it seems that Nifty is likely to bottom out in 3 years.





Short term trading calls of Stocks for spot market



Reliance (spot)

The level 2150 is crucial for short term. If it sustains above 2150, then it is likely to rally towards 2230.

Instead, if it fails to sustain above 2150 in coming trading sessions, then it is likely to turn weak and it could decline towards 1950 initially.

Trading Strategy for Reliance

For intraday, the crucial level is 2150. Trade long above these levels and trade short below these levels.

Positional traders can initiate longs if it sustains above 2150 for a target of 2230. Initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 2150 for a target of 1950.



SBI (spot)

The crucial level for the short term for this scrip is 2170. If it fails to sustain above 2170, then it is likely to turn bearish and in the down side it could test 1950 in coming trading sessions.

Instead, if it sustains above 2170, then the short term trend would turn bullish and in the upper side it is likely to move towards 2220.


Trading Strategy for SBI

For Intraday, the crucial level is 2120. Trade long above this level and trade short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 2170 for a target of 1950. And initiate longs if it sustains above 2170 for a target of 2220.



Rcom (spot)

The level 320 is crucial in the short term. If the scrip trades above this level, the short term would turn bullish and in the upper side it could test 340.

If it fails to sustain above 320, then the trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 250 initially.


Trading Strategy for Rcom


For intraday, the crucial level is 305. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 320 for a target of 250. Initiate longs if it sustains above 320 for a target of 340.





Icici Bank (spot)

The level 860 is crucial for this scrip in the short term. If it sustains above this level, then it is likely to see a rally from these levels towards 900.

Instead, if it fails to sustain above 860, the short term trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 800 initially.



Trading Strategy for Icici Bank

For intraday, the crucial level is 860 . Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if the scrip fails to sustain above 860 for a target of 800. Initiate longs if it sustains above 860 for a target of 900.




Tata Steel (spot)

The crucial level for the scrip in the short term is 525. The trend would remain bearish for this scrip if it sustains below 525 and in the down side, it could test 460 initially.

If the scrip sustains above 525, then the scrip is likely to turn bullish in the short term and in the upper side it could rally towards 560.


Trading Strategy for Tata Steel

For intraday, the crucial level is 515. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate longs if the scrip sustains above 525 in the upside for a target of 560. Short if it fails to sustain above 525 for a target of 460.


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