TECHNICAL OUTLOOK, 31 DECEMBER

D Sathia Moorthy


Nifty (spot) 2979.50



Nifty Intraday trading levels

Today, if Nifty trades below 3020, then it could test 2850. Instead, if it trades above 3020, then it could test 3050.


Nifty Trading Strategy for intraday and positional trading

For intraday, the crucial level is 3020. Trade short below this level and trade long above this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 3050 for a target of 2500 with a stop at 3100 and trade long above 3050 for a target of 3150 with a stop at 3000.



Short term Technical View of Nifty


The short term trend is looking weak and it is likely to test 2500 and this view holds good as long as Nifty stays below 3050.

The recent rally from the low of 2250 seems to be corrective and it seems it has peaked out at 3250.

The present rally from 2500 seems to be a counter trend rally and it is likely to peak out below the previous top of 3250.





Medium term outlook of Nifty dated on 14 October 2008

The medium term outlook of Nifty would remain bearish if it fails to sustain above 3100. Nifty is likely to bottom out in the medium term at 2000-2200 levels in coming months and if it fails to sustain above this level, then it is likely to decline below 2000 levels.





Long term outlook of Nifty dated on 13 October 2008

The long term outlook of Nifty is looking bearish and it seems that Nifty is likely to bottom out in 6 months to 1 year if the bottom forms around 2000. If the level 2000 is not held, then Nifty is likely to take more than 1 year to bottom out.





Short term trading calls of Stocks for spot market



Reliance (spot)

The level 1300 is crucial for short term. If it sustains above 1300, then it is likely to rally towards 1375.

Instead, if it fails to sustain above 1300 in coming trading sessions, then it is likely to turn weak and it could decline towards 1000 initially.

Trading Strategy for Reliance

For intraday, the crucial level is 1225. Trade long above these levels and trade short below these levels.

Positional traders can initiate longs if it moves above 1300 for a target of 1375. Initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 1300 for a target of 1000 initially.



SBI (spot)

The crucial level for the short term for this scrip is 1300. If it fails to sustain above 1300, then it is likely to turn bearish and in the down side it could test 1000 in coming trading session.

Instead, if it sustains above 1300, then the short term trend would turn bullish and in the upper side it is likely to move towards 1350.


Trading Strategy for SBI

For Intraday, the crucial level is 1310. Trade long above this level and trade short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 1300 for a target of 1000. And initiate longs if it sustains above 1300 for a target of 1350.



Infosys (spot)

The level 1200 is crucial in the short term. If the scrip trades above this level, the short term would turn bullish and in the upper side it could test 1250.

If it fails to sustain above 1200, then the trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 1000 initially.


Trading Strategy for Infosys


For intraday, the crucial level is 1150. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 1200 for a target of 1000. Initiate longs if it sustains above 1200 for a target of 1250.





Reliance Capital (spot)

The level 580 is crucial for this scrip in the short term. If it sustains above this level, then it is likely to see a rally from these levels towards 650.

Instead, if it fails to sustain above 580, the short term trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 480 initially.



Trading Strategy for Reliance Capital

For intraday, the crucial level is 580. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if the scrip fails to sustain above 580 for a target of 480. Initiate longs if it sustains above 580 for a target of 650.




Rpower (spot)

The crucial level for the scrip in the short term is 127. The trend would remain bearish for this scrip if it sustains below 127 and in the down side, it could test 80 initially.

If the scrip sustains above 127, then the scrip is likely to turn bullish in the short term and in the upper side it could rally towards 145.


Trading Strategy for Rpower

For intraday, the crucial level is 124. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate longs if the level 127 is broken in the upside for a target of 145. Short if it fails to sustain above 127 for a target of 80.


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