TECHNICAL OUTLOOK, 17 DECEMBER

D Sathia Moorthy


Nifty (spot) 3041.75



Nifty Intraday trading levels

Today, if Nifty trades above 3050, then it could test 3150. Instead, if it trades below 3050, then it could test 2950.


Nifty Trading Strategy for intraday and positional trading

For intraday, the crucial level is 3150. Trade short below this level and trade long above this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 3150 for a target of 2500 with a stop at 3250 and trade long above 3050 for a target of 3150 with a stop at 3000.



Short term Technical View of Nifty



The recent rally from the low of 2250 seems to be corrective and it seems it has peaked out at 3250.

The present rally from 2500 seems to be a counter trend rally and it is likely to peak out below the previous top of 3250.

A move above 3050 is highly vulnerable for the market to a sharp down move towards 2500.




Medium term outlook of Nifty dated on 14 October 2008

The medium term outlook of Nifty would remain bearish if it fails to sustain above 3100. Nifty is likely to bottom out in the medium term at 2000-2200 levels in coming months and if it fails to sustain above this level, then it is likely to decline below 2000 levels.





Long term outlook of Nifty dated on 13 October 2008

The long term outlook of Nifty is looking bearish and it seems that Nifty is likely to bottom out in 6 months to 1 year if the bottom forms around 2000. If the level 2000 is not held, then Nifty is likely to take more than 1 year to bottom out.





Short term trading calls of Stocks for spot market



Reliance (spot)

The scrip is close to its previous short term top of 1500. It seems unlikely for the scrip to move above this top. So, the level 1450 is crucial for short term. If it sustains above 1450, then it is likely to rally towards 1490.

Instead, if it fails to sustain above 1450 in coming trading sessions, then it is likely to turn weak and it could decline towards 1000 initially.

Trading Strategy for Reliance

For intraday, the crucial level is 1400. Trade long above these levels and trade short below these levels.

Positional traders can initiate longs if it moves above 1450 for a target of 1490. Initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 1450 for a target of 1000 initially.



SBI (spot)

The crucial level for the short term for this scrip is 1230. If it fails to sustain above 1230, then it is likely to turn bearish and in the down side it could test 1000 in coming trading session.

Instead, if it sustains above 1230, then the short term trend would turn bullish and in the upper side it is likely to move towards 1300.


Trading Strategy for SBI

For Intraday, the crucial level is 1230. Trade long above this level and trade short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 1230 for a target of 1000. And initiate longs if it sustains above 1230 for a target of 1300.



Infosys (spot)

The level 1150 is crucial in the short term. If the scrip trades above this level, the short term would turn bullish and in the upper side it could test 1200.

If it fails to sustain above 1150, then the trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 1000 initially.


Trading Strategy for Infosys


For intraday, the crucial level is 1135. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 1150 for a target of 1000. Initiate longs if it sustains above 1150 for a target of 1200.





Sterlite (spot)

The level 315 is crucial for this scrip in the short term. If it sustains above this level, then it is likely to see a rally from these levels towards 360.

Instead, if it fails to sustain above 315, the short term trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 200 initially.



Trading Strategy for Sterlite

For intraday, the crucial level is 298. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if the scrip fails to sustain above 315 for a target of 200. Initiate longs if it sustains above 315 for a target of 360.




Tata Steel (spot)

The crucial level for the scrip in the short term is 250. The trend would remain bearish for this scrip if it sustains below 250 and in the down side, it could test 150 initially.

If the scrip sustains above 250, then the scrip is likely to turn bullish in the short term and in the upper side it could rally towards 290.


Trading Strategy for Tata Steel

For intraday, the crucial level is 232. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate longs if the level 250 is broken in the upside for a target of 290. Short if it fails to sustain above 250 for a target of 150.


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