Friday, June 09, 2006

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK - 09, JUNE

09, JUNE
Nifty 2724.35

For the past few days, I have been mentioning that the trading pattern for the past few trading sessions suggested that Nifty was in the last leg of this correction and the possible range for the last leg to get completed was quite wide.

The last possible scenario is being that Nifty could bottom out around double the length of the previous rally in the downside. Here Nifty moved up 380 points. So, Nifty is likely to bottom out around 380 points below 2896 and it works out to 2516.

The previous intermediate top of Nifty was 2668.85 and it formed on 5th of October 2005. Downside correction normally terminate around previous tops. So, a bottom might have already formed around yesterday’s low of 2683 or it is likely to bottom out around 2516 region.

If this is the case, then correction might have completed or it could form within few trading sessions within another 200 points in the downside.

If correction terminates within the levels I have mentioned, the uptrend in Market will be still intact. Correction extending beyond this level is highly suspectable and then we have to rework the long term charts and also recovery will take months.

Today, if yesterday’s low of 2683 is held, then Nifty is likely to move up. If not, further downside towards 2516 is the possibility.