TECHNICAL OUTLOOK, 18 FEBRUARY

D Sathia Moorthy


Nifty (spot) 2770.50



Nifty Intraday trading levels and range


Today, if it sustains below 2780, then it could test 2700 and below this level it could test 2650.

Instead, if it sustains above 2780, then it could test 2815.


Nifty intraday Trading Strategy

For intraday, the crucial level is 2780. Trade short below this level and trade long above this level.


Nifty Positional Trading Strategy


Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 2950 for a target of 2500 with a stop at 2950 and trade long above 2950 for a target of 3050 with a stop at 2910.



Short term Technical View of Nifty


The short term trend is looking weak and it is likely to test 2500 initially and then it could decline towards 2000 and this view holds good as long as Nifty stays below 2950.






Medium term outlook of Nifty dated on 14 October 2008

The medium term outlook of Nifty would remain bearish if it fails to sustain above 3100. Nifty is likely to bottom out in the medium term at 2000-2200 levels in coming months and if it fails to sustain above this level, then it is likely to decline below 2000 levels.





Long term outlook of Nifty dated on 13 October 2008

The long term outlook of Nifty is looking bearish and it seems that Nifty is likely to bottom out in 6 months to 1 year if the bottom forms around 2000. If the level 2000 is not held, then Nifty is likely to take more than 1 year to bottom out.





Short term trading calls of Stocks for spot market



Reliance Inds (spot)

The level 1280 is crucial for short term. If it sustains above 1280, then it is likely to rally towards 1320.

Instead, if it fails to sustain above 1280 in coming trading sessions, then it is likely to turn weak and it could decline towards 1100 initially.


Trading Strategy for Reliance Inds

For intraday, the crucial level is 1260. Trade long above these levels and trade short below these levels.

Positional traders can initiate longs if it moves above 1280 for a target of 1320. Initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 1280 for a target of 1100 initially.



SBI (spot)

The crucial level for the short term for this scrip is 1100. If it fails to sustain above 1100, then it is likely to turn bearish and in the down side it could test 1020 in coming trading sessions.

Instead, if it sustains above 1100, then the short term trend would turn bullish and in the upper side it is likely to move towards 1140.


Trading Strategy for SBI

For Intraday, the crucial level is 1100. Trade long above this level and trade short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 1100 for a target of 1020. And initiate longs if it sustains above 1100 for a target of 1140.



ONGC (spot)

The level 700 is crucial in the short term. If the scrip trades above this level, the short term would turn bullish and in the upper side it could test 740.

If it fails to sustain above 700, then the trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 600 initially.


Trading Strategy for ONGC


For intraday, the crucial level is 670. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 700 for a target of 600. Initiate longs if it sustains above 700 for a target of 740.





Maruti (spot)

The level 610 is crucial for this scrip in the short term. If it sustains above this level, then it is likely to see a rally from these levels towards 640.

Instead, if it fails to sustain above 610, the short term trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 500 initially.



Trading Strategy for Maruti

For intraday, the crucial level is 600. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if the scrip fails to sustain above 610 for a target of 500. Initiate longs if it sustains above 610 for a target of 640.




M&M (spot)

The crucial level for the scrip in the short term is 310. The trend would remain bearish for this scrip if it sustains below 310 and in the down side, it could test 230 initially.

If the scrip sustains above 310, then the scrip is likely to turn bullish in the short term and in the upper side it could rally towards 350.


Trading Strategy for M&M

For intraday, the crucial level is 303. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate longs if the level 310 is broken in the upside for a target of 350. Short if it fails to sustain above 310 for a target of 230.


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