TECHNICAL OUTLOOK, 21 NOVEMBER

D Sathia Moorthy


Nifty (spot) 2553.15



Nifty Intraday trading levels

Today, if Nifty trades below 2500, then it could test 2400 and below this level, it could test 2300. Instead, if it sustains above 2600, then it could test 2670.



Nifty Trading Strategy for intraday and positional trading

For intraday, the crucial level is 2510. Trade short below this level and trade long above this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 2600 for a target of 2200 and trade long above 2600 for a target of 2670.



Short term Technical View of Nifty


The level 2900 is crucial in the short term. As long as it stays below this level, it is likely to decline to 2000 initially.

The recent rally from the low of 2250 seems to be corrective and it seems it has peaked out. Now it is likely to decline below 2250 in coming trading sessions.


The level 2000, is crucial for short term in the downside. If the level is held a short term bottom is possible. If not, Nifty is likely to decline further steeply.



Medium term outlook of Nifty dated on 14 October 2008

The medium term outlook of Nifty would remain bearish if it fails to sustain above 3100. Nifty is likely to bottom out in the medium term at 2000-2200 levels in coming months and if it fails to sustain above this level, then it is likely to decline below 2000 levels.





Long term outlook of Nifty dated on 13 October 2008

The long term outlook of Nifty is looking bearish and it seems that Nifty is likely to bottom out in 6 months to 1 year if the bottom forms around 2000. If the level 2000 is not held, then Nifty is likely to take more than 1 year to bottom out.





Short term trading calls of Stocks for spot market



Reliance Infra (spot)

The level 450 is crucial for this scrip for the short term. If it sustains above 450, then it is likely to rally towards 525.

Instead, if it fails to sustain above 450 in coming trading sessions, then it is likely to turn weak and it could decline towards 300 initially.


Trading Strategy for Reliance infra

For intraday, the crucial level is 432. Trade long above these levels and trade short below these levels.

Positional traders can initiate longs if it moves above 450 for a target of 525. Initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 450 for a target of 300 initially.



SBI (spot)

The crucial level for the short term for this scrip is 1150. If it fails to sustain above 1150, then it is likely to turn bearish and in the down side it could test 900 in coming trading session.

Instead, if it sustains above 1150, then the short term trend would turn bullish and in the upper side it is likely to move towards 1200.


Trading Strategy for SBI

For Intraday, the crucial level is 1070. Trade long above this level and trade short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 1150 for a target of 900. And initiate longs if it sustains above 1150 for a target of 1200.



Infosys (spot)

The level 1150 is crucial in the short term. If the scrip trades above this level, the short term would turn bullish and in the upper side it could test 1260.

If it fails to sustain above 1150, then the trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 1000 initially.


Trading Strategy for Infosys

For intraday, the crucial level is 1150. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 1150 for a target of 1000. Initiate longs if it sustains above 1150 for a target of 1260.





Rpl (spot)

The level 75 is crucial for this scrip in the short term. If it sustains above this level, then it is likely to see a rally from these levels towards 85.

Instead, if it fails to sustain above 75, the short term trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 40 initially.



Trading Strategy for Rpl

For intraday, the crucial level is 70. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if the scrip fails to sustain above 75 for a target of 40. Initiate longs if it sustains above 75 for a target of 85.




Reliance Capital (spot)

The crucial level for the scrip in the short term is 450. The trend would remain bearish for this scrip if it sustains below 450 and in the down side, it could test 300 initially.

If the scrip sustains above 450, then the scrip is likely to turn bullish in the short term and in the upper side it could rally towards 500.


Trading Strategy for Reliance Capital

For intraday, the crucial level is 435. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate longs if the level 450 is broken in the upside for a target of 500. Short if it fails to sustain above 450 for a target of 300.




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