Tuesday, July 11, 2006

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK - 11, JULY

Nifty 3142.00

The short term trend continues to be bullish and Nifty has potential of testing 3300 and above, as long as it stays above 3000.

Today, if Nifty moves above 3150 region and if it sustains above that level, then Nifty is likely to test 3220-3250 level. Stop for the longs is 3120.

Instead, a move below 3120 would turn Nifty weak further and in this case it could test 3085 region. And below 3085, 3000 level is likely.

The trend in Infosys is looking bullish and it has potential of testing 3400-3450 region in coming trading sessions. Long positions can be initiated at current levels, with a stop at 3125 or futures positions can be hedged using 3100 put option.

For the past few weeks, I have been mentioning that the maximum possible downside potential is limited to 2500 level for Nifty. If market doesn’t violate this level here after, the long term bullish trend will remain intact. Correction extending beyond this level is highly suspectable and we have to rework the long term charts. Now, one can remain invested for the long term with a stop at 2850.


The post correction scenario has two possibilities. One possibility is, Nifty is likely to move towards its all time high in a slow manner and if this is the case, then it may take 6 months to 1 year to cross the all time high. The other view is, Nifty is likely to move towards its previous high without any major downside correction and in this case, Nifty is likely to cross the all time high before the month of August 2006. If Market moves in expected lines, then once again we are likely to see a strong bull market in coming months.