09, JUNE
Nifty 2724.35
For the past few days, I have been mentioning that the trading pattern for the past few trading sessions suggested that Nifty was in the last leg of this correction and the possible range for the last leg to get completed was quite wide.
The last possible scenario is being that Nifty could bottom out around double the length of the previous rally in the downside. Here Nifty moved up 380 points. So, Nifty is likely to bottom out around 380 points below 2896 and it works out to 2516.
The previous intermediate top of Nifty was 2668.85 and it formed on 5th of October 2005. Downside correction normally terminate around previous tops. So, a bottom might have already formed around yesterday’s low of 2683 or it is likely to bottom out around 2516 region.
If this is the case, then correction might have completed or it could form within few trading sessions within another 200 points in the downside.
If correction terminates within the levels I have mentioned, the uptrend in Market will be still intact. Correction extending beyond this level is highly suspectable and then we have to rework the long term charts and also recovery will take months.
Today, if yesterday’s low of 2683 is held, then Nifty is likely to move up. If not, further downside towards 2516 is the possibility.
Friday, June 09, 2006
Thursday, June 08, 2006
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK - 08, JUNE
08, JUNE
Nifty 2860.45
The trading pattern for the past few trading sessions suggests that Nifty is in the last leg of this correction. Now the possible range for the last leg to get completed is quite wide. In some cases, if the market is strong, it will not go below its previous low and here it should not go below 2896. But the low was violated yesterday.
In some cases, a new low will be formed within few points below the previous low. In this case, Nifty could form a bottom around 2850. Yesterday, it tested 2820 level. In some cases, the low is formed at double the length of the previous rally. Here the previous rally moved up 380 points and another 380 points fall below the low of 2896 is the maximum possible correction.
And also a contracting downside triangle is forming in the Nifty and in individual stocks. Contracting triangles break out sharply in either side according to the type.Here, the breadth of the triangle is 400 points. So, Nifty is likely to loose or gain atleast 400 points in a shorter period of time.
Technically the triangle seems to be bullish, simply because yesterday it did not go further down even after violating 2850 level. If it is about to break out in the downside, then it should do today in the morning itself. The initial indication of weakness comes if it trades below 2820 region. If not, Nifty is likely to move up.
However, it is better to wait and watch till a clear picture emerges from todays trading.
Nifty 2860.45
The trading pattern for the past few trading sessions suggests that Nifty is in the last leg of this correction. Now the possible range for the last leg to get completed is quite wide. In some cases, if the market is strong, it will not go below its previous low and here it should not go below 2896. But the low was violated yesterday.
In some cases, a new low will be formed within few points below the previous low. In this case, Nifty could form a bottom around 2850. Yesterday, it tested 2820 level. In some cases, the low is formed at double the length of the previous rally. Here the previous rally moved up 380 points and another 380 points fall below the low of 2896 is the maximum possible correction.
And also a contracting downside triangle is forming in the Nifty and in individual stocks. Contracting triangles break out sharply in either side according to the type.Here, the breadth of the triangle is 400 points. So, Nifty is likely to loose or gain atleast 400 points in a shorter period of time.
Technically the triangle seems to be bullish, simply because yesterday it did not go further down even after violating 2850 level. If it is about to break out in the downside, then it should do today in the morning itself. The initial indication of weakness comes if it trades below 2820 region. If not, Nifty is likely to move up.
However, it is better to wait and watch till a clear picture emerges from todays trading.
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