29, May
Nifty 3209.60
If Nifty sustains above 3200 region and moves past 3250 region, as previously mentioned, it could move towards 3350-3400 region.
On the other hand, if the region 3140 is violated in the downside, it could move towards 3050 region. Even if it tests 3050 region, it could rebound from that level. Only below 3000 region, Nifty could turn weak further to go below its earlier low of 2896.
If Acc sustains above 785 region, it could move towards 850. If reliance sustains above 940 region, it could move towards 1000.
The level 3000-3050 level is crucial for deciding whether a bottom was already formed or there is still some downside. As long as Nifty stays above 3000-3050 level, there is a strong possiblity of a bottom being formed.
If 2896 is the bottom, then we could see a strong rally towards 3650 region initially.
It seems that the overall trend in the Nifty continues to be bullish. Nifty has retraced around 25 percent from the high in percentage terms. Any percentage of retracement with in one third ( 33% ) retracement level is acceptable for a bull market correction.
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Monday, May 29, 2006
Sunday, May 28, 2006
MEDIUM TERM VIEW OF NIFTY
28, May
Click the image to enlarge it.
Normally, expanding triangles are completely retraced. In Nifty, expanding triangle started around 2000 region. If Market has to retrace completely, then it should retrace upto 2000 level. If market has to retrace the last leg of the expanding triangle, then it should retrace upto 2500 level. But, so far Nifty retraced upto 2896 level. When compared to other possible corrections, the present correction is a shallow one. Only if market is very strong and the upside is huge, we could see a shallow correction.
If that is the case, then we should not see a downside below 3000 level and also if the conceived pattern is validated, then we could see a huge rally in coming weeks and probably, the rally would be the fastest in this bull market and initially it should move above 3800.
The present view is validated, if and only if, Nifty stays above 3000 level. If that level is violated, then we could see correction extending towards 2500 level.
Click the image to enlarge it.
Normally, expanding triangles are completely retraced. In Nifty, expanding triangle started around 2000 region. If Market has to retrace completely, then it should retrace upto 2000 level. If market has to retrace the last leg of the expanding triangle, then it should retrace upto 2500 level. But, so far Nifty retraced upto 2896 level. When compared to other possible corrections, the present correction is a shallow one. Only if market is very strong and the upside is huge, we could see a shallow correction.
If that is the case, then we should not see a downside below 3000 level and also if the conceived pattern is validated, then we could see a huge rally in coming weeks and probably, the rally would be the fastest in this bull market and initially it should move above 3800.
The present view is validated, if and only if, Nifty stays above 3000 level. If that level is violated, then we could see correction extending towards 2500 level.
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