Friday, January 01, 2010

Why projections made based on Elliott or Neowave frequently fail?




Those who are practicing Elliott Wave principle or Neowave frequently end up with failed projections. They would rework the labels once again to adjust for the new move. This process would continue until the projected move completes which is useless from trading point view. Those who are following Elliott wave should combine their labels with traditional technical analysis patterns to verify the wave count.


Robert precther, who popularized the Elliott Wave Principle has been bearish on Dow, since 2000. And his book ‘Conquer the Crash’, was published on 2002 itself which foresees a major bear Market in Dow. Though his forecasts came true, it came after 7 years. So, even a highly experienced Analyst has also missed the timing.


Glenn Neely, who discovered Neowave which is being widely followed by many practitioners, has changed the view on Dow from highly bearish to highly bullish to once again to highly bearish with in this 9 Months. So, the man who propounded that theory itself failed to correctly forecast a long term trend of the Market.


Why I am telling this is because, Elliott Wave or Neowave those who are practicing it should properly label them. Timing the market is more important. To time the market, one should combine Elliott or Neowave with traditional technical analysis patterns and cycle analysis to properly label the waves. The success in stock market relies on timing the market.

The search continues on this way for me till now…..